A real estate expert is advising homebuyers in Florida to be cautious as the state’s housing market is going through some changes.
Florida remains one of the most challenging places to buy a home in the U.S., with high interest rates and strong demand making it tough for buyers. However, Nick Gerli, the CEO of a housing data platform called Reventure App, is warning that the market might look very different by the end of 2024.
According to Gerli, the number of homes for sale in Florida is now the highest it has been in at least seven years. He shared on X (formerly Twitter) that there were 141,000 active listings in July, a huge 70 percent increase from last year. Compared to the low point during the pandemic, listings are up by 276 percent.
“These big increases in the number of homes for sale could push prices down in the second half of 2024,” Gerli wrote on X. “Be careful if you’re buying in Florida.”
Some areas in Florida saw even bigger jumps in the number of homes for sale. In the Tampa area, listings grew by 94 percent compared to last year. Orlando, Jacksonville, and Miami also saw large increases, ranging from 72 to 79 percent.
Gerli explained that when a lot of homes go up for sale in a short time, it can lead to price drops. In Central to West Florida, listing prices have already dropped by 2 to 9 percent, which Gerli said is “progress, but not a huge change.” Miami, one of the most competitive markets, saw the biggest drop, with prices down by 11 percent.
Several factors are contributing to the rise in the number of homes for sale, including a large number of new homes being built, as well as high insurance premiums and homeowner association fees that are forcing some owners to sell.
Gerli also mentioned that the pandemic sped up the decision for many people to buy homes in Florida. This “pull-forward” effect means that some people who might have bought a home in 2024 or 2025 actually bought it in 2021-2022 because of the pandemic. Now, there might be fewer buyers in the market for the next few years.
While Gerli noted that home prices have only come down a little and still have a long way to go before buyers feel the market is affordable, the current increase in homes for sale could signal big changes ahead.
Alex Beene, a consumer literacy teacher at the University of Tennessee at Martin, told Newsweek that housing markets across the U.S. are seeing challenges with higher prices and interest rates, which keep buyers away. Florida, in particular, is struggling because of sharply rising insurance costs.
Beene also pointed out that the desire to move to Florida to escape stricter pandemic restrictions in other states is no longer a factor, leading to more homes on the market and potential long-term issues for Florida’s housing market.
But Beene reassured sellers not to panic. “Despite these problems, there are still many buyers,” he said. “A lot depends on the Federal Reserve’s decisions on interest rates. If you can afford to wait, it might be better to hold off on selling until interest rates drop.”
Michael Ryan, a finance expert in Florida and the founder of MichaelRyanMoney.com, said that the surge in homes for sale might not be just a temporary thing.
“It could be a big shift that changes the real estate market in a big way,” Ryan told Newsweek. He explained that developers got overly excited during the boom and are now building an entire city west of West Palm Beach with 5,000 homes.
With more homes for sale, prices are likely to come down from the extreme highs seen during the pandemic.
“During the pandemic, everyone wanted to move to Florida,” Ryan said. “But now? That rush might be slowing down.”
In the short term, this could lead to a market adjustment, but Ryan isn’t sure if the lower prices will last for long.
“Prices might go up and down, but Florida’s main attractions—sunshine and no state income tax—aren’t going anywhere,” he said.